The rule of 25% – pass this and you have a global product
An interesting statistic by Sony Ericsson suggests that once a new technology (like picture messaging) has achieved a 25% market penetration then it will no longer be a doubt for consumers that the technology will stick around.
In this instance, SE claim that once 25% of people have started to use picture messaging, the rest of the market will no longer fear that someone at the other end will not be able to see it
I am surprised that any market would be 25% early adopters (especially one with high entry costs such as mobile telephony), but I suspect that if that was broken down, there would be leading-edge adopters, keen early adopters, follower early-adopters making up the 25%).
Thinking about applying this rule to web-based products is an interesting idea, especially with things like blogging, wiki and other consumer-generated material. Once you start to get a handful of readers to your blog, that number quickly increases (please!!), likewise a wiki and forums…but just how many people are your 25% early adopters?
With blogs, wikis, forums etc., as long as there is some degree of credible activity going on people will be happy to become part of the conversation. If that is 25% who knows and with several hundred million internet users it would be a wild guess anyway but there is no getting away from the fact that early efforts need to get the early adopters in board to spread word of mouth.
Don’t believe anyone who tells you that the internet is full of people who don’t care about wiki’s, blogs etc. or simply use the internet to shop. If they see something that interests them, that others also share an interest in – they will come.